72 points (18 wins, three losses) 137.1 per cent
Round 23:
Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
If the Hawks win next week:
- They will play a home qualifying final against the Sydney Swans
If they lose next week:
- They will still finish top if Geelong loses to the Brisbane Lions
- They will slip to second if the Cats beat the Lions, and play a home qualifying final against Fremantle or the Sydney Swans
Predicted finish: first
Predicted finals match-up: Hawthorn v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, MCG
2. GEELONG
68 points (17 wins, four losses) 138 per cent
Round 23:
Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
If the Cats win next week:
- They will play a home qualifying final against either Fremantle or the Sydney Swans
- They will finish top if Hawthorn loses to the Swans
If they lose next week:
- They will slip to third and play a qualifying final against Fremantle at Patersons Stadium, providing the Dockers beat St Kilda
- They will still finish second if Fremantle loses to St Kilda
Predicted finish: second
Predicted finals match-up: Geelong v Fremantle, second qualifying final, Etihad Stadium
3. FREMANTLE66 points (16 wins, four losses, one draw) 141.8 per cent
Round 23:
St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
If the Dockers win next week AND the Cats lose:
- They will finish second and play the Cats in a home qualifying final
If they win next week AND the Cats win:
- They will finish third and play a qualifying final in Melbourne against Geelong or Hawthorn
If they lose next week:
- They will finish third if the Swans lose, and play a qualifying final against Geelong in Melbourne
- They could still finish third if the Swans beat Hawthorn. They will finish fourth if the Swans win by enough and the Dockers lose by enough to close the six-point percentage gap. That would leave Freo facing either Hawthorn or, more likely, Geelong in a qualifying final in Melbourne.
Predicted finish: third
Predicted finals match-up: Geelong v Fremantle, second qualifying final, Etihad Stadium
4. SYDNEY SWANS
62 points (15 wins, five losses, one draw) 135.5 per cent
Round 23:
Hawthorn at ANZ Stadium
If the Swans win next week:
- They will play a qualifying final against Hawthorn or Geelong
- And win well, they could finish as high as third if Fremantle (v St Kilda) loses by a significant margin
If they lose next week:
- They will remain fourth and play a qualifying final against Hawthorn or Geelong
Predicted finish: fourth
Predicted finals match-up: Hawthorn v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, MCG
5. RICHMOND
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 121.4 per cent
Round 23:
Essendon at the MCG
If the Tigers win next week by enough to maintain their percentage gap on Collingwood:
- They'll finish fifth and host Port Adelaide in an elimination final
If they win but are overhauled by Collingwood on percentage:
- They'll finish sixth and play Essendon in an elimination final
If the Tigers lose next week and the Pies also lose:
- They will finish sixth and face a blockbuster elimination final against Collingwood
If they lose and the Pies win:
- They'll finish seventh and play Essendon in a knockout final
Predicted finish: fifth
Predicted finals match-up: Richmond v Port Adelaide, first elimination final at the MCG.
6. COLLINGWOOD
56 points (14 wins and seven losses) 116.7 per cent
Round 23:
North Melbourne at the MCG
If the Magpies win next week and overhaul the Tigers on percentage:
- They will finish fifth and earn a home elimination final against Port Adelaide
If they win but fail to overhaul the Tigers:
- They will finish sixth and play Essendon in week one of the finals
If the Magpies lose next week:
- They will finish sixth or seventh and play Richmond or Essendon in an elimination final
Predicted finish: sixth
Predicted final match-up: Collingwood v Essendon, second elimination final, MCG
7. ESSENDON
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 109.7 per cent
Round 23:
Richmond at the MCG
If the Bombers win next week and Collingwood loses:
- They will finish fifth (assuming they retain their premiership points), setting up an elimination final against Port Adelaide
If they win and Collingwood wins:
- They will finish fifth only if they belt Richmond by 100+ points and the Pies win very narrowly
- They will finish sixth and play Richmond in an elimination final
If they lose next week:
- They will finish seventh and face either Richmond or Collingwood in an elimination final
Predicted finish: seventh
Predicted final match-up: Collingwood v Essendon, second elimination final, MCG
8. PORT ADELAIDE
48 points (12 wins, nine losses) 102.6 per cent
Round 23:
Carlton at AAMI Stadium
The Power are guaranteed to finish eighth unless Essendon is stripped of points.
Predicted finish: eighth
Predicted final match-up: Richmond v Port Adelaide, first elimination final, MCG
